Renewable energy is on the rise—with record additions this year—but so is carbon.

Global additions of renewable energy capacity are expected to reach 290GW in 2021, up 3% from the all-time high set last year, according to IEA data. This compares with current fossil fuel and nuclear power capacity of 4,800GW.

Last year, annual renewable capacity additions increased 45% to almost 280GW-the highest year-on year increase since 1999. Solar PV alone is expected to account for more than half of all renewable power expansion in 2021, followed by wind and hydropower.

The consecutive annual record will come despite rising raw materials costs, which are driving up the cost of producing and transporting solar panels and wind turbines, threatening to put pressure on investment in the short-term. Stronger commodity prices through the end of 2022 would return the cost of wind projects to the level last seen in 2015, while the last three years of cost reductions for solar PV would be undone.

While elevated commodity prices pose challenges for the renewable industry, strong fossil fuel prices are helping to make renewables even more competitive. Improving competitiveness, strong policy support and climate targets announced at COP26 outweigh current manufacturing cost increases.

The IEA has forecast a stronger rise in renewable electricity growth than ever before. By 2026, global renewable electricity capacity is likely to exceed 4,800GW—more than 60% higher than 2020 levels, and the equivalent of all current global fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined.

Renewables are set to account for almost 95% of the increase in global power capacity through 2026, fuelled by stronger national climate policies, according to the IEA. Solar PV alone providing more than half of the renewable capacity additions.

China, the world's biggest carbon emitter, is set to remain the global leader in capacity additions, reaching 1,200GW of total wind and solar capacity in 2026. India is set to double new installations compared with 2015-2020. Deployments in Europe and the US are also on track to speed up significantly from the previous five years. These four markets together account for 80% of global renewable capacity expansions.

Despite these leaps forward, renewable capacity would still “fall well short” of what would be needed to pave the way to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the IEA concluded.

To accelerate the shift to renewable energy, governments will need to increase support for clean technologies and provide incentives for investment. Retiring fossil-fuel plants earlier than expected is another potential avenue. At the COP26 summit in Glasgow, developed countries agreed to a US$8.5bn partnership with South Africa to help the country close its coal plants more quickly than scheduled.

EMISSIONS

Despite the accelerating uptake of renewables, energy related CO2 emissions are on track for their second largest ever rise in 2021, reversing most of last year’s decline—according to the IEA. These emissions are projected to grow by 4.8% as demand for coal, oil and gas increases as the economy rebounds. This follows a 5.8% decline, or almost 2Gt, in 2020, which marked the largest ever decrease. Despite the reduction, global energy-related CO2 emissions remained at 31.5Gt, which contributed to CO2 reaching its highest ever average annual concentration in the atmosphere—around 50% higher than when the industrial revolution began.

This year’s expected rise in coal use dwarfs that of renewables by almost 60%, even as electricity generation from renewables is set to leap by more than 8%, the IEA said. More than 80% of the projected growth in coal use is set to come from Asia, led by China. Coal use in the US and the EU, however, will remain well below pre-crisis levels. Oil use is also recovering but will stay below 2019 levels, largely because the aviation sector is expected to remain depressed this year. Global gas demand is expected to grow 3.2% in 2021, more than recouping last year’s decline.

While the global commitment to fighting climate change had “never been higher”, IEA Director Fatih Birol stressed the need to back up pledges to cut emissions with credible policy actions. “I will be blunt. Commitments alone are not enough. We need real change in the real world. Right now, the data does not match the rhetoric, and the gap is getting wider and wider” he said.

Reaching net zero emissions by 2050 would depend in large part on the use of technologies that were not yet ready to be used at scale, such as carbon capture and storage and the use of clean hydrogen as fuel, he added. “Make no mistake, this is a Herculean task.”

Key Renewables Pledges

China

China’s net-zero by 2060 target includes a goal of 25% of its total energy mix from non-fossil generation by 2030. China plans to more than double its current installed capacity of wind and solar power to 1,200GW by 2030. The IEA forecasts China will reach this target four years ahead of schedule in 2026.

China wants 80% of its total energy mix to come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060, according to a high-level policy framework for achieving carbon neutrality, published by the State Council, the country's highest executive body, on Oct. 24. About 57% of China’s total energy consumption came from coal burning in 2020, down from 70% in 2009.

United States

The US has committed to reduce net GHG emissions by 50-52% by 2030 compared to 2005. The country plans to decarbonise the power sector by 2035 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

In 2020, renewable energy provided 19.8% (792TWh) of the country’s electricity, including 8.4% wind (338TWh), 7.3% hydropower (291TWh) and 2.3% solar (91TWh). Natural gas and coal accounted for 60.6% (2,427TWh), while nuclear provided 19.7% (790TWh), according to EIA data. The US Department of Energy (DoE) said in February that it expects renewables would reach a 42% share by 2050 based on current trends and policies.

The DoE said its calculations showed that solar panels had fallen so much in cost that they could produce 40% of the country’s electricity by 2035—enough to power all American homes—and 45% by 2050. To achieve that growth, the country would have to double the amount of solar energy installed every year over the next four years and then double it again by 2030. Reaching these goals, however, would take trillions of dollars in investment.

President Biden’s US$1.75tn Build Back Better bill includes US$320bn in tax incentives for producers and purchasers of renewable energy. The bill, however, is likely to change as it moves through the evenly divided Senate.

The US will bring online 39.7GW of new electricity generation capacity in 2021, with solar to account for 39% (15.4GW), followed by wind with 31% (12.2GW), natural gas with 16% (6.6GW), batteries with 11% (4.3GW), nuclear with 3% (1.1GW), according to the EIA.

European Union

The EU and its Member States, acting jointly, have committed to a target of 32% of final energy consumption to be from renewables by 2030. In July 2021, the European Commission proposed to update the EU target from 32% to 40% to align renewable policy with raised ambitions for emissions reduction (55% emissions reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050).

By 2026, the EU’s renewable capacity is expected to reach 750GW, expanding by 40GW per year on average, according to IEA estimates.

India

During COP26, India announced new 2030 targets of 500GW of total non-fossil capacity and 50% renewable electricity generation share (more than double the 22% share in 2020), as well as net zero emissions by 2070.

Russia

The Russian Federation has committed to reaching a renewable electricity generation target of 4.5% (excluding hydropower) by 2024.

Indonesia

Indonesia has a target that renewable energy will account for 23% of electricity generation by 2030. The country wants renewables to account for 52% of added capacity between 2021 and 2030.

Brazil

Brazil has pledged to reduce emissions from 2005 levels by 50% in 2030, end illegal deforestation by 2028 and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Japan

Japan has a target to increase the share of renewable electricity generation to 36-38% by 2030. The new plan, approved in October 2021, is double 2019's level and well above its previous 2030 target for 22-24%.

In April 2021, Japan raised its 2030 target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions to 46% from 26% on 2013 levels. Japan will aim for 14-16% to come from solar, 5% from wind, 1% from geothermal, 11% from hydropower and 5% from biomass. The use of coal will be reduced to 19% from a previous target of 26%, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be lowered to 20% from 27% and oil will be cut to 2% from 3%.

Renewable capacity in Japan is expected to increase by 46GW over 2021-2026, or 35%, led by solar PV and wind, according to IEA estimates.

Canada

Canada has a target to generate 90% of electricity from non-emitting sources by 2030.

Mexico

Mexico has a target to generate 35% of its electricity from clean energy sources by 2024, up from 27.8% in 2020.

South Korea

The Republic of Korea aims to increase the share of renewable power generation to 20% by 2030 and to 30-35% by 2034, from 7.4% today. The portion of coal and natural gas in the country's electricity mix will be lowered to 21.8% and 19.5% in 2030, respectively, compared with 40% and 26% in 2019.

The country’s 9th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand (BPLE) targets an increase in the share of renewable energy capacity from 15.8% in 2020 to 40.5% in 2034. This includes hydro, oceanic, biogas, landfill gas, fuel cell and IGCC energy sources, in addition to solar PV and wind.

The rise in the share of renewables comes partly as a result of the plans to gradually phase out nuclear generation. Installed nuclear capacity is expected to decrease by almost 17% from 23.3GW in 2020 to 19.4GW by 2034. Installed coal-fired capacity is expected to decrease from 35.8GW to 29GW by 2034. The 9th BPLE also includes the conversion of 24 coal-fired plants to natural gas, increasing gas-fired capacity by 16.8GW by 2034.

President Moon Jae-in's "Green New Deal" unveiled in July 2020 calls for the spending of KRW73.4tn (US$62bn) over the next five years to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2050. The plan calls for expanding the country's power generation capacity of solar panels and wind turbines to 26.3GW in 2020 and 42.7GW in 2025, up from 12.7GW last year. South Korea’s renewable energy capacity is forecast to double, expanding by 30GW between 2021 and 2026, according to the IEA.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is aiming for 50% of electricity to be generated with renewable energy by 2030, with the remaining 50% from natural gas, as part of plans to decarbonise its economy by 2060. It is unclear whether this target is in line with a previous 2030 target announced in 2019, which outlined a goal to achieve 27.3GW and 57.8GW of installed renewable electricity capacity by 2023 and 2030, respectively.

Australia

Australia does not have a new renewable energy target for 2030 or beyond with the government relying on a mix of hydrogen, carbon capture and storage to reach net zero by mid-century. Coal accounted for 54% of Australia's power mix in 2020, while renewables took a 24% share (64,667GWh), which was up from 21% in 2019, according to government data. The largest source of renewable generation in 2020 was solar (9% of total generation) followed by wind (9%) and hydro (6%).

State and territory renewable targets:

• Tasmania has pledged to double renewable energy generation by 200% of its current needs by 2040 to 21,000GWh (from a current 10,500GWh). The state was 99% powered by renewables in 2020.
• New South Wales plans to build 12GW of renewables and 2GW of pumped hydro storage by 2030 to lower emissions by 50%.
• Victoria wants renewable energy to power 45% of its electricity by 2025 and then 50% by 2030. This marks an increase from 26% in 2020 (13,685GWh), which exceeded its 25% target.
• South Australia wants renewable energy to power 100% of its electricity by 2030, up from 60% in 2020 (8,523GWh).
• The Northern Territory wants renewable energy to power 50% of its electricity by 2030, up from an estimated 4% in 2017.
• The Australian Capital Territory has met its target of powering 100% of its electricity with renewable energy in 2020.
• Queensland wants renewable energy to power 50% of its electricity by 2030, up from 16.6% in 2020 (10,888GWh).

South Africa

South Africa plans to increase in renewable electricity generation to about 41% by 2030, up from 11% in 2020.

Turkey

Turkey has a target to reduce up to 21% of GHG emissions from the "business as usual" level by 2030. Turkey has pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2053.

UK

The UK plans to generate 100% of its electricity from renewables by 2035. The goal, outlined in October, 2021 builds on the government's target to cut CO2 emissions by 78% by 2035 compared with 1990 levels.

UK power generation from renewable sources has more than doubled since 2014. Renewables (mainly wind, solar, biomass, hydro) accounted for 43% of the UK's 312TWh of domestic power generation in 2020.

The UK targets 40GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, up from 11GW today. A fourth contract for differences auction is forecast to award around 12GW of new capacity in December 2021. The UK also has around 12GW of onshore wind and 14GW of solar. Renewable capacity in the UK is expected to grow by almost 26GW, or 50%, during 2021-2026, according to IEA estimates.