Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) has become one of the major talking points in energy as countries around the globe struggle to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and fulfill commitments to reduce production of greenhouse gasses.

Not all energy sources are created equal. Carbon costs are a looming problem for the environmentally conscious miner, and carbon emissions studies are still a relatively young science. The use of fossil fuels, mainstay of global economies for decades, is beginning to suffer from changing attitudes towards carbon emissions, climate change, and environmental pollution.

Lithium operations in South America and Australia are looking to ramp up supply over the medium-term to meet a massive uptick in demand for li-ion batteries as countries get serious about decarbonisation. AME expects lithium demand to grow at a massive compound annual growth rate of 24% through 2024, reaching 654,364kt.

Greenhouse gas emission (GHG) associated with LNG have come under increased scrutiny from governments and market participants in recent years. Global LNG trade has more than tripled since the beginning of the century, while GHG emissions from LNG supply and end use had reached an estimated 1.25 Gt CO2-eq (~17% of emissions from natural gas) by 2020.

The US has a long history of manufacturing vehicles—dominating the sector for over 100 years—and its ambitions to become a major player in the nascent electric vehicle (EV) industry will see changes in the raw materials the country is trying to get its hands on.

The two main methods of steelmaking vary greatly in terms of carbon emissions. The typical blast furnace and/or basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) has a variety of raw materials such as iron ore, metallurgical coal, limestone and recycled steel. This method also includes the preparation of raw material in the likes of pelletisation and the sintering of iron ore. However, the majority of CO2 emissions in the steelmaking process is derived from the iron ore reduction process in the blast furnace.

Encouraged by thermal coal price growth, miners are reviewing expansion plans and raising capital for new projects and acquisitions. M&A activity is increasing, as are valuations and divestment.

China officially announced that its carbon dioxide emissions will peak by 2030 before striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. According to statistics from the International Energy Agency, global energy-related carbon emissions in 2020 totalled 31.5Bt, with China holding the largest global share at 9.45Bt. China's steel carbon emissions account for more than 60% of global steel carbon emissions, and the steel industry's carbon emissions account for about 15% of the country's total emissions, according to the China Metallurgical Association.

Demand for copper is expected to keep rising over the coming years as the global economy electrifies and decarbonises. Miners are speeding up construction of their new copper projects, although they have continued to face coronavirus-related disruptions. After two consecutive years of declines, mainly due to the pandemic-related disruptions, particularly in South America, AME forecasts mined copper supply to grow 3.6% year on year to 21.15Mt in 2021 to and a further 7.3% in 2022 to 22.71Mt. Operations are expected to be less hindered by the pandemic, while new projects ramp up.

Investment in metallurgical coal mining projects is heavily focused on the world’s top five producers. These export-oriented developments comprise nearly 64Mtpa of coal mining capacity. These ventures have been approved and have obtained final investment decision or are already under construction, with the majority located in Australia and Russia.

The ‘Make in India’ initiative aims to grow India’s domestic capability in manufacturing for its 1.4 billion residents. For aluminium, that means self-sufficiency and vertical integration across the entire value chain from bauxite to finished products. A persistent issue inhibiting success is India’s challenges in trying to develop its large domestic bauxite reserves to secure the required raw materials—over 30Mtpa of additional bauxite supply capacity may be required if proposed projects are realised.

Gold is trading at around US$1,800/oz, while nearly 10% lower than last year's spike to record levels fuelled by the pandemic, it is still well above the five-year average. Higher prices are encouraging investment and output, which has been sliding over the last few years. AME's base case of new projects coming online over the medium-term through 2025 includes 16 projects—with two each in Asia, Africa, Europe and Australia, and four in both North America and Latin America.

In the coming decades, the shifting demand for fossil-based transportation fuels will be the defining factor that will transform existing oil refining capacity. Future refineries will be equipped with flexible technology solutions that can enable them to make a wide variety of chemicals and intermediates.

Qatar aims to be the world’s largest producer of LNG for at least the next two decades, capitalising on rising demand as the world transitions from oil and coal to cleaner energy. The world’s top LNG supplier, Qatar’s state owned Qatar Petroleum (QP), has committed to development of the first phase of its North Field LNG project expansion. The investment entails a four-train expansion with a total capacity of 32Mtpa named North Field East, that has been touted as the largest single LNG project sanctioned in history.

Steel prices have skyrocketed, and global crude steel production is forecast to increase 5.3% this year. The ramping up continues as steel demand from construction and automotive industries is gradually increasing. This significant rebound in the last few months has been mostly led by China, which currently accounts for more than half of the world’s output—which also makes it the largest metallurgical coal importer.

The main technological drivers that have to date been instrumental in lifting production for the world’s largest oil and gas producer, the US, are in the shale sector. Key advances include multiple and longer laterals, closer spaced, more hydraulic fracture stages, increased proppant injection volumes, automation and robotics have lifted well estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs). Adoption of multilateral technology has been a step change in unconventional reservoir development, combining the well construction capabilities of multilateral drilling with multistage hydraulic fracturing and commingled production.

Relations between China and Australia have soured following Canberra’s call last year for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 and Beijing’s imposition of tariffs on Australian coal, seafood, beef, wine and barley imports. However, China continues to import iron ore from Australia due to a lack of alternatives and disrupted supply from Brazil due to the pandemic and natural disasters.

While the US currently lags behind others in making clean energy technologies, President Biden has pledged to restore the country's manufacturing might. The Biden administration announced on June 8 that it was forming a task force to address bottlenecks and increase domestic production capacity for crucial goods, such as semiconductors.

The key end uses for copper are in construction (including building wire, plumbing, heating and air conditioning), electrical and electronic products (including power utilities), transportation, industrial machinery and equipment, and consumer and general products.

Aluminium is one of the most abundant metallic elements on Earth but is rarely found in its elemental form. Prior to 1886, the cost of producing aluminium metal was greater than that of gold and platinum, making it highly valuable. However, since 1886 when an American, Charles Hall and a Frenchman, Paul Heroult simultaneously discovered you could dissolve alumina in cryolite, apply a bit of electricity, and Bob’s your uncle— there's aluminium. The Hall-Heroult process has seen the cost, and therefore value of, aluminium fall off a comparative cliff. This process, combined with cheaper electric power transitioned aluminium from a precious metal to a comparatively inexpensive commodity.

Global export thermal coal supply is forecast to grow strongly by 3.9% in 2021 on increasing global power generation demand to support recovering economies. Despite the gathering global momentum from policy makers around emissions reductions, the June quarter reality was that global thermal coal-fired generation was increasing rapidly. As a consequence, thermal coal supply is on trend to exceed pre-COVID levels.

Gold miners are strengthening their sustainability goals amid intensifying pressure from governments, investors and the general public to act on climate change. Sharpening focus on the mining industry's ecological footprint has been building since the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming by well below 2°C compared with pre-industrial levels.

The growing global distribution of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines has altered the outlook for the global economy, and that for oil demand. Reflecting an upbeat general sentiment, AME forecasts a degree of stability in the global oil industry for the first time since COVID-19 began and while considerable uncertainties remain, the risks to growth are more balanced as acute downside risks ease and upside risks emerge.

Nickel production has always been relatively expensive. In all the excitement of the China commodity boom up to 2014, nickel projects suffered from very high capital intensities—the project capital cost divided by the nameplate contained nickel capacity.

Lithium demand is set to grow more than 40 times by 2040 if countries want to meet the goals of the Paris agreement. While electrifying transport and shifting to renewable energy systems is turbocharging demand and stoking prices, projected supply is estimated to meet only half of this need by 2030.

AME expects mined copper supply to grow 4.8% on-year in 2021 to 17,219kt and a further 6.8% in 2022 to 18,391kt. Indeed, even though mined copper production has continued to face coronavirus-related disruptions this year, particularly in South America, AME expects supply to grow. Operations will be less hindered by the pandemic, particularly in the second half of the year, while new mines and expansions ramp up.

Protectionist measures are anticipated to become an increasing theme in the short to medium term. Responding to the impact of the pandemic on world trade and political tensions flowing from actions by an assertive China, other countries are looking to secure domestic manufacturing capability and reduce dependence on the manufacturing behemoth.

China’s steel industry recovered quickly after the initial outbreak of the pandemic led to a 1.6% y-o-y slip in March 2020 to 79Mt. For the past 12 months, China's average monthly crude steel production has increased 9.5%, while the Rest of World (RoW) has decreased by 6.7%.

In the global energy industry, natural gas is considered the “bridge fuel” to a low-carbon future. Industry participants and some policymakers have touted the benefits of natural gas as a climate-friendly substitute for more carbon-intensive fuels, such as coal. However, this has been increasingly challenged, as the natural gas industry faces growing pressure from investors, regulators, and customers to do more to help meet climate change objectives and ESG goals.

Australia’s thermal coal industry and the national economy are closely bound. Australia is the fifth-largest coal producer and has the fourth largest reserves of coal in the world. The nation is the world’s second-biggest thermal coal exporter.

China's electric vehicle makers are looking to topple Tesla's dominance in the domestic market, which is expected to see exponential growth in the years ahead. The groups have used Shanghai's Auto Show, which opened on Apr. 19, to tout their latest offerings and technology to entice younger buyers. Indeed, surveys are suggesting that the country's under-35s are increasingly in favour of domestic brands.

There are numerous LNG projects expected to commence operations around the world in the coming years. These projects have been initiated to meet an anticipated strong demand for cleaner-burning fuel.

Tsingshan's announcement in March that it would supply Huayou Cobalt and CNGR Advanced Material with nickel matte has grabbed the attention of the nickel market and industry.

The accelerating shift towards renewable energy will require huge quantities of copper as governments pledge to reach net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. This is particularly the case for wind energy, which is the most copper-intensive form of power generation and will consume the highest amount over the next decade in this sector. AME forecasts that copper demand will double by 2050 resulting in a 2.15% CAGR, the highest in the base metals class.

It has been long while since Australia witnessed a new greenfield coal project moving on to become an operational mine. The last project to come online and ramp up to full production capacity was Qcoal’s Byerwen coal project back in 2018. This feature article will look at some of the major development projects in the pipeline that have the potential to become operational within the next few years.

Increasing consumer interest in responsible and sustainable gold is pushing the world's top jewellers and watch makers to reassess their supply chains. Miners will continue to face increased scrutiny to improve their environmental, social, and governance credentials, particularly after a string of high-profile disasters.

Crude oil markets may have successfully rebounded from the shockwave of COVID-19, but a positive medium-term outlook for crude and products trade is far from secure.

Japan is the second largest exporter of steel in the world; but its dominance is at the precipice of waning. The rise of China—the top exporter of steel since 2006—as well as industry concerns of excess capacity and increased protectionist measures have led to decreasing Japanese steel exports.

Bauxites from Guinea and Brazil have a global reputation for their high quality and relative ease of processing. According to the USGS, Africa and the South America/Caribbean region comprise 53% of the global bauxite reserves. Guinea alone accounts for a quarter of the world’s reserves and has seen a dramatic increase in production in the past five years, making it the second largest producer behind Australia, and is expected to soon pass 100Mtpa. While the West African producers currently have very limited domestic refinery capacity compared with the South American/Caribbean region—with Rusal’s 640ktpa Fria refinery in Guinea the only operation—future refinery development is a potentially large value driver in the medium term.

Increasing awareness and activity relating to greenhouse gas emissions has seen companies start to burnish their green/environmental responsibility credentials.

The most abundant element in the universe, hydrogen, is viewed as a tantalising substitute to natural gas and coal to help heavily polluting sectors such as aviation, steelmaking, and shipping de-carbonise. As an added bonus, some of the existing infrastructure in our carbon-dependent economy, from pipelines to refineries, can be retrofitted to hydrogen-based energy production.

China has emerged supreme in the race to manufacture the high-tech batteries that power electric cars and store renewable energy with 93 "gigafactories"—compared to only four in the US. If current trends continue, China could have 140 gigafactories by 2030, while Europe would have 17 and the US, just 10.

US refined copper demand is set to grow by 3% this year to 1.768Mt and rise a further 4.5% in 2022 to 1.847Mt as President Biden's US$1.9tn stimulus bill comes to fruition, powering further economic recovery in the world's biggest economy, coupled with the new administration's enthusiasm for the green revolution.

Rio Tinto is headed for another cultural battle over Indigenous mining land after it was granted approval by the US government for a land swap in Arizona on grounds sacred to Native Americans.

China’s car market staged a sparkling recovery in the second half of 2020, but this rebound set off a domino effect of chip shortages, panicking both suppliers and clients, and placing the supply chain, and its vulnerabilities, under a microscope.

Interest in hydrogen is mainly centred in two regions—China and the EU. China's interest stems from the country's desire to dominate global energy and technology markets. In the EU, government policy has taken centre stage thanks to the EU Hydrogen Strategy. Released last July, the plan calls for the installation of 6GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers by the end of 2024, and at least 40GW by 2030.

An unprecedented shortage of liquefied natural gas tankers at the start of 2021 made these vessels the most expensive ships ever hired to transport commodities. Spot rates more than tripled in the past month, with BP Plc last month paying US$350,000 a day to charter an LNG tanker to pick up a cargo from the US.