As Europe looks to phase out thermal coal, demand for Colombian exports has been in decline in recent years. That has led to a few key producers ceasing operations, given that Europe accounts for 30% of imports of Colombian thermal coal.

The US last month slapped fresh sanctions on Polyus and Polymetal's Russian unit—Russia's biggest gold miners—which produced 2.5Moz and 1.7Moz of gold, respectively, last year. They are both in the top 10 of mined gold producers in the world.

China's state-backed Metallurgical Mines’ Association of China (MMAC) has released the national green iron ore production guideline. The guideline aims to accelerate the construction of 25 iron ore mining hubs and develop 28 state-backed mining projects and eliminate low-efficiency and high-energy consumption iron ore mines.

Natural gas comprised a little less than a 25% of Germany’s primary energy use in 2022, making it the country’s second most important energy source. Germany is among the world’s biggest natural gas importers with 95% of its gas consumption met by imports.

Indonesia will continue to be the driver of growth in nickel developments, as global energy transition efforts ramp up. Finished production grew by a staggering 32% in 2022 from ballooning ferronickel capacity. This growth is expected to moderate, as the market remains in massive oversupply, bringing annual production to 1,239kt in 2023.

AME’s finished steel demand forecast for Korea in 2023 and 2024 is 57Mt and 59Mt, an increase of 1% and 4%, respectively, year on year. The Bank of Korea expects GDP to be just under 2% for 2023 and 2024.

While US lithium production is relatively small, output is expected to surge in 2024 when new projects come online. Albemarle’s Silver Peak in Nevada, the country's only operating mine, will double in capacity to 10kt LCE by 2025. AME expects US lithium supply to average 5kt LCE in 2023 and jump to 22kt LCE in 2024.

Australia is ideally placed to have an important role in the global hydrogen industry. The country has a high renewable energy potential and abundant land space to support renewable electricity generation. Combined with a skilled workforce and ample resources, Australia is expected to become a leading exporter of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen.

Jamaica's alumina production has taken a hit in recent years due to the closure of its largest refineries: Alpart and Jamalco. This has left only the relatively small Ewarton refinery operating for a stretch of time in 2022. However, the restart of Jamalco and the eventual return of Alpart offer a promising supply upside in the medium term.

Canadian mining firm Teck Resources (Teck) announced in late February its plans to separate its operations into two independent, publicly-listed companies—Teck Metals Corp (Teck Metals), and Elk Valley Resources Ltd. (EVR).

Gold miners are feeling the pressure of higher costs, driven by still-hot inflation, which is weighing down financial results, despite strong gold prices. Those with lower volumes are particularly feeling the pinch.

The Philippines is the second largest nickel miner in the world, after Indonesia. In 2022, its mined production accounted for 11.2% of global supply. Mining activities are usually limited in the March Quarter due to heavy rain. Ore is largely exported as direct shipping ore, with over 97% going to China’s stainless-steel sector.

AME’s forecasts crude steel production in the US to reach 92Mt in 2023, a 15% jump from the previous year. A goal of self-reliance within the country’s manufacturing industries has been prominent since early 2018, when the government imposed at 25% import tariff on steel products.

Australia has the largest reserves of iron ore, located in the Hamersley Basin of the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The primary haematite ores produced are the dominant iron ores mined and exported. Haematite ores require minimal processing before transport to customers (direct shipping ore or DSO), such as iron ore from BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG.

The race to mine and refine lithium is accelerating around the globe with a wave of new projects expected to come online this year. Africa, a region not traditionally associated with lithium mining, is no exception to the growing list of projects. Countries such as Zimbabwe, Mali, and Ghana are expected to become significant lithium exporters in the near future.

As countries continue to push their decarbonisation targets, increasing environmental requirements will potentially lead to a greater preference for scrap and recycled material in order to avoid energy intensive primary materials.

Glencore plans to build Europe’s largest battery recycling plant as companies battle for control over the supply of critical raw materials needed by electric vehicle makers. The move comes as upcoming EU sustainable batteries regulation is expected to dramatically increase demand for recycled materials.

Despite the sanctions upon sanctions placed on Russia by European and western-aligned nations, Russia’s LNG exports to Europe have hit new records. While gas pipeline supply has been largely cut off and oil languishes under a US$60/bbl price cap, LNG out of Russia continues to grow stronger than ever as Europe’s need for fuel circumvents the political arena.

Australian coal mines produced an estimated ~1.6Mt of methane in 2022. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that can rapidly accelerate global heating, trapping 82.5 times more heat than carbon dioxide over 20 years.

India’s coal production jumped 9% on the year to 86.6Mt in February 2023. The country’s coal ministry data reported a 15% rise to 785.24Mt from April to February. With India focusing on expanding domestic production, state-run Coal India (CIL) lifted its coal output by 7% on the year to 68.8Mt in February.

A year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the LNG market has been rapidly realigned, becoming more expensive, more concentrated and less flexible in favour of the developed nations with major import infrastructure.

Japan’s declining iron ore demand is correlated with lower steel demand, which is being caused by Japan’s ageing population, China’s rapid rise in dominance, and economic growth in emerging Asian countries (ex-China).

China imported increased volumes of Russian energy last year. Russia was China’s second largest supplier of crude oil, after Saudi Arabia, delivering 1.7 million barrels per day (Mbpd), which accounted for 17% of China’s imports (up from 16% in 2021) and 35% of Russia’s exports (up from 31% in 2021).

Secondary (or recycled) aluminium is produced from scrap recovered from aluminium manufacturing waste or aluminium products that have reached their end-of-life. The secondary metal requires ~95% less energy than its primary counterpart, offering a near-equivalent reduction in carbon emissions.

The green steel transition is set to change the value chain in the steel and metallurgical industry. The change is expected to be a gradual one, with a phase-in of green steel facilities starting in the most advanced economies.

Europe was the second largest electric car market with nearly 2.2m plug-in sales across 2022. German brands led the sales in Europe with BMW and Mercedes-Benz taking the top 2 spots in the market share (8.8% and 8.4% respectively). Tesla was the third best-selling brand for EVs across Europe, with its Model Y crowned the best-selling EV.

Battery makers say they are encouraged by Brussels’ response to the Inflation Reduction Act, but urged that quick action is needed to avoid investment being drained to the US. Since it was signed off last year, the IRA has sparked panic among European policymakers as the US$369bn package of subsidies and tax incentives for green technology lures European companies across the Atlantic.

Global EV sales totalled 10.4m in 2022, having grown by a staggering 58% from 2021. Sales are forecast to continue climbing, reaching 14m in 2023 and 17.4m in 2024. Nickel demand from the battery sector alone is estimated to be 364kt in 2023, accounting for ~12% of total finished demand.

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are becoming an increasingly common strategy in the copper industry, as companies look to capitalise on the growth potential of copper under the net-zero era. With an eye toward securing their place in a rapidly evolving market, producers are actively seeking opportunities to expand their production capacity, diversify their portfolio and gain a competitive edge through M&A activity.

Gold miners are stepping up efforts to decarbonise their operations amid intensifying pressure from governments and investors to act on climate change. Newmont, the world’s biggest gold miner, has committed to a 32% absolute reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 (2.4Mt CO2Eq), from 2018 (3.57Mt CO2Eq).

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was signed into law in August 2022, is expected to accelerate the development of the hydrogen economy. Through the largest hydrogen subsidies in the world, the IRA will support the deployment of green hydrogen production across the United States.

The European Commission launched a Green Deal programme in December 2019, which provided a framework for environmental targets and methods for implementation. The agenda included climate change policies and proposals to reform the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Since the introduction of the EU ETS in 2005, the bloc’s emissions have been reduced by 41%.

Solar developers in the US and Europe are improving Perovskite and tandem efficiency and bringing them into the commercial space. Financial support in the US Inflation Reduction Act and a new package of measures pledged by the European Union last month should help perovskite developers move from pilot to commercial-scale factories.

The UK delayed the decision for Ørsted’s 2.6GW Hornsea Four offshore wind project in the North Sea, 69km off the Yorkshire Coast. The Planning Inspectorate announced that the deadline for the decision on the development consent application has been extended to 12th July from 22nd February.

Southeast Asia is a region with enduring potential for the LNG market. Massive demand growth prospects and rapidly developing industrial sectors promise to increase demand for energy and natural gas. LNG provides an opportunity that the southern nations have seized upon to develop the sector. However, the region’s interests could be served by a collaborative effort to develop the LNG sector.

US refiners are operating at the highest operating rate since before the pandemic, but they are not expected to bring relief to the tight fuel market through major capacity expansions in the short term.

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law in August 2022, aims to restrain inflation rates while pushing for domestic clean energy development. A total of US$369bn has been allocated to climate solutions. A US$7,500 tax credit will be granted to consumers when they purchase a new EV.

Since the Biden administration approved the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in mid-2022, companies have announced an estimated US$35bn of investment in the domestic EV supply chain. The IRA is undoubtedly boosting local manufacturing of batteries and electric vehicles through generous tax incentives.

The US is making massive federal investments to build up a domestic supply chain for batteries and EVs. Last year’s Inflation Reduction Act lays out US$370bn in climate spending over a decade. US states and localities have also promised EV-related companies nearly US$14bn in subsidies as of October 2022.

Newmont’s US$17bn offer for Newcrest last month has lifted expectations of a new wave of consolidation, particularly at the big end of the gold sector. While the US miner’s all-share offer was unanimously rejected by its Australian rival’s board, the world’s largest gold miner will now gain access to non-public information to allow it to decide whether to make an improved bid.

China Baowu Group, the world’s largest steelmaker, produced 132Mt of crude steel in 2022, up 10% year on year. The company has been restructuring in recent years with the aim of producing 200Mt of crude steel by 2025, accounting for 15% of the global market.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 rattled the global energy markets, as Russia dominated the global oil and gas industry for decades prior to the invasion. One year on, what’s been the impact on Russia’s exports?

The main use of zinc is galvanising steel…but what other end uses does zinc have? While zinc is most commonly, around 60%, used as a protective coating for steel to prevent rusting, it has many other critical uses.

The global hydrogen energy demand is expected to more than double from 1,200TWh this year to 2,800TWh by 2030. The numbers of countries with supportive policies for hydrogen technologies is rising and the global hydrogen demand will be reach 6,500TWh by 2050.

Following the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine over 2022, energy security has been a constant discussion in Europe. In certain countries, such as France, nuclear is the solution to energy security across the EU. For others, such as Germany, permanent shutdowns of nuclear reactors have already begun.

The acceleration of the global energy transition has led to growing pressure for mining companies to divest from coal mining assets. Pressure to dissociate from coal extraction has now begun to extend beyond the abandonment of thermal coal operations to include metallurgical coal. This pressure has mostly affected diversified miners.

Coal companies in Australia are still feeling the ripple effects of the war on Ukraine, as the New South Wales (NSW) State Government announces a Coal Reservation policy requiring NSW coal producers to put aside a portion of quarterly productions for domestic power plants.

Rising aluminium demand is driving up the entire value chain. China lays at the centre of aluminium and alumina production, which makes it the predominant player when it comes to capacity and production developments. Yet, with limited domestic supplies, China must reach out to international markets to meet the demand for bauxite, the feed material of the industry.

Steel producers are looking to realise their decarbonisation plans by increasing steel scrap usage. In recent times, major steel producers have acquired steel scrap recycling companies to secure a reliable source of metallics raw material input. Steel scrap is the silver bullet to steel producers offering a solution for decarbonisation in both BF/BOF and EAF operations for the production of green steel.

The average grade of copper ore mined has declined by 1.6% per year over the past 17 years from 0.75% in 2005 to 0.57% in 2022. The fall is due to declining grades at some of the largest, long-life mines and the development of new low-grade mines. The declining grade trend will continue because of the same two factors.

Europe has targeted a reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, from 1990 levels. Consequently, steel producers in Europe will lead the green steel transition with a signification number of companies deciding to implement Carbon Direct Avoidance. This means shutting down existing BF/BOF and investing in EAF and DRI steelmaking technology.

The Australian thermal coal sector has been rocked by a series of recent developments. AME forecasts that Australia will export 213Mt of thermal coal in 2023, up by 11% from 2022 levels. Production will be supported by the restart of New Acland and Dartbrook coal mines and more favourable weather.

AME forecasts hydrogen demand in North America will reach up to 43Mtpa by 2030 and 156Mtpa by 2050. This is 1.7 and 6 times respectively that of current demand in the region and ~25% of global hydrogen demand in 2050.

Investment in gas and LNG from the Middle East and North Africa will expand rapidly out to 2030, but will remain focused on existing suppliers unless significant political shifts are achieved.

AME expects that demand for coal will significantly improve in the new year with China prepared to lift a two-year old unofficial ban on Australian coal imports. The Chinese government essentially banned Australian coal imports in early October 2020 and has only allowed customs clearance for Australian coal loaded on vessels during China's energy crisis in late 2021.

As China emerges from the pandemic determined to stabilise its economy, state-owned steel giant Baowu Group has been given the green light by Beijing to ensure that first production by 2025 becomes a reality. In December 2022, Baowu agreed terms with joint venture partners including Rio Tinto on developing infrastructure for the Simandou iron ore project.

Europe is the second largest finished demand source after Asia, contributing to ~9.1% of global demand. In 2022, it is forecast to consume 261kt of nickel. Soaring energy prices in the region has greatly reduced stainless-steel production.

We expect global EV sales to reach 13.6m in 2023, rising 26% from an estimated 10.8m in 2022. By 2025, we expect sales to reach 19.8m, reaching a market share of 22%. There are now almost 30m EVs on the road, up from just 10m at the end of 2020. The market share of electric cars has also tripled since 2020, reaching 13% last year.

Total renewable energy capacity in the United States is set to expand to 470GW by the end of 2023, producing 1100TWh of clean energy, 7% higher than last year.

China has seen fast growth in its copper smelting capacity in the last decade, with its primary smelting output doubling to 8.4Mt in 2022 from 4.2Mt in 2013. China will remain the global centre of primary smelters; however, its growth rate will slow. AME forecasts Chinese primary smelters' consumption of copper in concentrate to grow at a CAGR of 1.6% in the next five years, to reach 9,261kt in 2027. This is much lower than the CAGR of 4.8% seen in the past five years.

AME’s 2022 full year forecast for Germany’s natural gas demand is 207MMcmpd, a substantial 16% drop year on year. In 2023, demand is forecast to decline a further 7% to 195MMcmpd. Natural gas consumption in Germany decreased in the December quarter with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline still closed and supplies via other routes heavily restricted.

Lithium miners are rushing to Canada to take advantage of the mining-friendly jurisdiction. Under its Critical Minerals Strategy, Canada will fast-track the development of critical minerals production, which includes lithium and other battery metals. Canada’s lithium supply is expected to reach 54kt LCE in 2023.

China remains dominant in the manufacture of wind turbines and the trade of wind energy technology. The country’s investment in the wind energy supply chain has been effective in bringing down global costs with multiple benefits for the clean energy transition.

Around 85% of all lead produced goes into lead-acid batteries. Despite having been in use for over 160 years, the lead-acid battery is nevertheless widely used and is still a growing market. While lithium-ion batteries are increasingly replacing traditional lead-ion batteries, in some applications there remains a need for the humble lead-acid battery.

Surging gas and electricity price following Russia invasion of Ukraine have increased hydrogen price in Europe, more than four times that of Australia and Middle East. The price of European blue hydrogen remained under US$9/kg in 2022 which is yet 1.4 times higher than the blue hydrogen in the Middle East.

The global solar photovoltaic share among all renewable sources reached almost 60% in 2022, up from 51% the year before. In 2022, 118GW of additional utility scale-solar PV capacity was installed globally, nearly 50% higher than in 2021. Net distributed PV capacity additions reached 72GW last year, similar to the year before but 20% higher than in 2020.

Policies remain supportive for wind deployment in a bid to narrow the gap to net zero by 2050 across much of the world. Policies continue to drive capacity growth, including auctions, feed-in tariffs, and contracts for difference across onshore and offshore wind projects.

As the economy around the world continued to recover from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created global uncertainty, which drove a rally in gold prices. During the first quarter of the year, the precious metal was set for its best performance since August 2020 when prices were over US$2,000/oz. But gold lost some of those early gains as investors shifted focus to monetary policy and higher bond yields.

The price of nickel was wildly volatile in 2022, with the European spot price surging to an unprecedented intraday US$100,000/t in March. The price was then capped at US$45,721/t, and trading was forcibly suspended on the LME for nine days as the market recovered.

The abrupt turmoil to Russian gas exports to Europe following the invasion of Ukraine has distorted the dynamics of energy supply trade in 2022. Supply chain disruptions related to the Covid-19 pandemic, labour shortages and severe rainfall have resulted in an unprecedented estimated global deficit of -42Mt of thermal coal in 2022.

Through 2022, aluminium markets have been affected by significant events in both Europe and China. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine generated uncertainty for supply coming from the second largest producing country along with its flow-on impact on global energy markets. Energy rationing in China affected production from the largest producing country early in the year while its continued pursuit of a zero-covid policy crimped demand.

The year 2022 saw serious turbulence in health policy, the energy market and global diplomacy. Lockdowns in China to mitigate the Covid-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine upset energy markets as sanctions and supply cuts attempted to find a balance with industry shutdowns and reduced demand.

AME‘s iron ore 62% spot price averaged US$122/t over 2022, a decrease of 24% from US$161/t in 2021. The 65% and 58% iron ore spot price averaged US$139/t and US$94/t in 2021, down by 25% and 26% year on year, respectively.

The copper price started 2022 at around US$9,700/t, increasing slowly over the first three months, with the monthly average AME Europe copper prices increasing to US$10,272/t in March.

The lithium market had an action-packed year in 2022, after a busy period in 2021 that saw lithium prices more than triple. At the start of 2022, Chinese lithium carbonate prices started trading at around the US$40,000/t mark, up over 400% since January 2021.

The year 2022 brought global economic growth following the 2021 Covid-19 caused downturn, largely tied to the development and global distribution of Covid-19 vaccines. High energy prices and supply chain pressures spurred record-high inflation and a growing energy crunch.

The average US price for HRC decreased significantly during the 11 months to November, ending at US$664/t, down 58% since the beginning of the year. In the same period, HRC prices in Europe, China and Asia followed the same trend and ended at US$647/t, down 37.4%; US$471/t, down 30.8%; and US$545/t, down 33.9%, respectively.

Even as the global economic outlook turned increasingly gloomy this year, electric vehicles continued to shine. We expect global EV sales to reach 10.9m in 2022, taking a market share of 13%. That’s up from 6.6m in 2021, and just 3.1m in 2020.

Metallurgical coal prices were unpredictable in 2022, with the Russia-Ukraine war causing massive disruptions to the market. Prices peaked at US$600/t and reached a low at US$200/t during the year. The year also marked the first time that thermal coal prices overtook metallurgical coal prices, trading at a significant premium. This has seen product switching of the two, adding more eccentricity in the market.

The year 2022 proved a challenging year for the lead, and particularly, the zinc industry. Coming into the year, prices were at an all-time high with the European zinc spot price sitting at US$3,610/t. This was down to smelter curbs arising from surging energy costs in Europe. While initially optimistic the situation would resolve during 2022, the global landscape and world events had other ideas.

In 2018, Ghana’s gold output of 4.8Moz surpassed South Africa’s 4.1Moz for the first time to make the country Africa’s largest gold producer—a position it has held ever since. Gold production from Ghana is expected to be 4.3Moz in 2022, up 8% from 4.1Moz in 2021.

AME’s finished steel demand forecast for India is 114Mt in 2022 and 119Mt in 2023, up 7% and 5%, respectively, year on year. Due to its population size, India is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

China’s plan for the next five years is to progress modernisation and efficiency gains across its industry and energy systems towards higher value and cleaner production. The country’s energy transition continues to be boosted by sectoral peaking plans and increasing national and provincial ambition on the rapid scale up of renewables.

Despite being the third largest producer of export metallurgical coal, the United States has always been known as the “swing producer”. High-cost US producers have felt the impact of declining coal prices and have been particularly susceptible to any oversupply in the market.

Clean energy investment is expected to exceed US$1.4tn in 2022, following a 12% annual growth in 2021. However, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires an estimate of over US$4tn in annual clean-energy investment.

Despite being the fifth largest primary aluminium demand country, Japan no longer possesses any domestic production capacity. As such, the country is dependent on imports to meet its requirements.

A growing EV market is driving the growth of the batteries market, which in turn fuels finished nickel demand. In 2022 demand for battery-grade nickel is forecast to be 290kt. Many auto manufacturers want ‘clean’ nickel to justify the production of EVs for the energy transition.

The beginning of 2022 saw the European gas market change irrevocably. The collapse of Russian gas exports to Europe has left the continent without sufficient supply – short over 100bcm of gas flow - and governments have been scrambling to find a way to keep the lights on and the heaters working for the 2022-23 winter.

Brazil is expected to produce a total of 373Mt of iron ore in 2022, down 4.8% year on year, primarily due to bad weather seen during the March Quarter. Production will grow significantly to 536Mt in 2040.

Peru holds reserves of 87Mt of contained copper, accounting for 10% of the world’s total reserves, ranking second globally. Peru is also the world’s second-largest producer of copper concentrate, producing approximately 13% of the total global copper concentrate supply.

2022 has been an eventful year for both the nuclear industry and uranium market. Global sentiment towards nuclear power started a shift in 2021 and continued to improve over 2022.

Refining profits surged globally this year on fears of a potential gasoil shortage, as buyers avoided Russian supplies despite soaring feedstock costs elsewhere. AME’s full year 2022 forecast for the global average crack spread price is US$51/bbl.

Steel production accounts for 8-10% of total global CO2 emission. It has been estimated zero-CO2 emission steel production can be achieved by 2050 with investment of ~US$280bn. This includes capacity enhancement and low emission retrofitting.

AME expects lithium supply from the US to remain at 5kt LCE for 2022 and 2023, with new projects starting to come online in 2024. Over the medium term, lithium supply is expected to grow at a CAGR of 55% to reach 45kt LCE in 2027.

Europe may be closer than ever to breaking its energy dependence on Russia, but in the short term it still can’t live without one type of Russian natural gas. While Russian exports of natural gas carried via pipelines to Europe have fallen sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, imports of Russian LNG, have risen.

South Korea is home to the world’s largest zinc smelter, the Korea Zinc-owned Onsan smelter. The contributions from this smelter make South Korea the second-largest global supplier of finished zinc.

India is at the frontline of global climate action as one of the top countries in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission production and its goal of achieving net zero by 2070. India has already reached almost 42GW of on-grid and off-grid onshore wind capacity in 2022, making it the fourth largest installed global wind market after China, United States of America, and Germany.

The global energy transition continues to drive EV demand, which in turn fuels battery-grade nickel demand. AME is forecasting EV sales to be 10.5m in 2022, which will increase to 14.9m in 2024. The EV market share will also increase from 13% in 2022 to 17% in 2024.

AME forecasts that iron ore demand from India will recover in 2022 to 188Mt, up 4%, as the government looks to maintain industrial output at all costs. The country is currently the second-largest consumer of iron ore after China, accounting for 8.3% of global demand in 2022.

G7 nations have made a US$10bn offer to help Indonesia to accelerate it coal phase out, with the US and Japan taking the lead in the negotiations. The new partnership is expected to be unveiled during the upcoming COP27 UN climate conference in Egypt. The cash offers are a combination of public and private finance as well as technical assistance, which aims for Indonesia to peak emissions in the power sector by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050-2055.