October 2021
While China is currently winning the race to manufacture lithium-ion batteries with 93 gigafactories, the US is racing to build up and expand capacity to grab market share as the EV sector is set for rapid growth. AME expects annual production of EVs will grow from 3m in 2020 to more than 11m by 2025.
The US currently has five operational battery plants, with Tesla controlling most production. AME estimates that the US had an annual installed li-ion battery production capacity of 54GWh in 2020, more than Europe's 18GWh but much less than China's 332GWh. The US has another eight li-ion battery plants in our 'probable' category (under construction or late-stage development) and another five in our 'possible category' (announcement stage). In our base case (existing expansions and 'probable' sites), we expect US battery production capacity to grow to 235GWh by 2025, more than tripling compared to 2020. In our ambitious case (including 'possible' sites) we expect capacity would grow by to at least 310GWh by mid-century. By 2025, global installed capacity is forecast to rise 300% to ~1,700GWh. China will continue to be the biggest player, with CATL aiming to raise capacity to an incredible 600GWh by mid-decade, but the US, together with Europe, are hot on its heels to shore up future economic competitiveness, lower emissions, create jobs and safeguard national security.